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This ETF is different from traditional ETFs. Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. For example:

 - You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

 - The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

 - These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

 - The ETF will publish on its website each day a “Proxy Portfolio” designed to help trading in shares of the ETF. While the Proxy Portfolio includes some of the ETF’s holdings, it is not the ETF’s actual portfolio.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF secret, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of the ETF, see the Principal Risks section of the prospectus.

1 New accounts with a minimum investment amount of $50 are offered through the Thrivent Mutual Funds "automatic purchase plan." Otherwise, the minimum initial investment requirement is $2,000 for non-retirement accounts and $1,000 for IRA or tax-deferred accounts, minimum subsequent investment requirement is $50 for all account types. Account minimums for other options vary.

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MAY 2024 MARKET UPDATE

April showers dampen investors’ optimism

05/07/2024

A man stands on a wet sidewalk with an open umbrella
WRITTEN BY:
Chief Investment Strategist
WRITTEN BY:
Steve Lowe, CFA,Chief Investment Strategist

Thrivent Asset Management contributors to this report: John Groton, Jr., CFA, director of administration and materials & energy research; Matthew Finn, CFA, head of equity mutual funds; and Jared Hagen, senior investment product specialist


Key points

April corrections

Markets in all equity sectors fell with the exception of utilities.

Patience is key

For both equities and bonds, waiting for interest rates and lower bond yields respectively takes patience.


Chart summarizing the performance of select market indexes, 10-year T bonds, and oil

 

U.S. stock and bond markets got off to a difficult start in April after the March jobs report exceeded even the most optimistic estimates. The surprising jobs report came on the heels of several higher-than-expected inflation reports in recent months, and concern began to build that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) might not be in a position to cut interest rates as fast as what had previously been priced into markets. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari even voiced the possibility that there could be no interest rate cuts in 2024 if “we continue to see inflation moving sideways.”

Bond markets responded with sharply higher yields across the Treasury curve. The 2-year yield rose approximately 0.40% in April, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed 0.48%, leading the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index to end the month down 2.53%, adding to its year-to-date losses. Real estate (down 8.5%) was the worst performing sector in the S&P 500® Index, which is not surprising given real estate’s high sensitivity to interest rates.

Retail sales remained relatively robust in March, providing some optimism about sustained consumer strength. Still, first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose only 1.6%. This figure was well below consensus expectations, giving investors reason to consider the possibility of a worst-case scenario where inflation remains sticky, interest rates stay higher for longer and economic growth continues to slow. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded consensus expectations for the third consecutive month, leading Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to all but confirm interest rate cuts would be pushed back.

The combined concerns about slower growth and higher rates contributed to a—perhaps overdue—correction in the technology sector. In mid-April, technology stocks saw their largest single-week correction in more than a year. Even Nvidia, a recent shooting star in the technology sector, saw a substantial correction during the month. Keeping in mind that the correction began from an all-time high for the S&P 500 Index, some skepticism about elevated valuations was to be expected.

Some optimism crept back into the market in late April as core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation—the Fed’s preferred measure—was reported to be broadly in line with expectations, and several of the largest technology companies delivered encouraging earnings reports. Alphabet (Google’s parent company) saw earnings rise 15%, and Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings. In bonds, yields also regained some lost ground, with 10-year Treasuries ending the month at 4.68%.

Outlook: We have often reiterated our view that turning points in the economy are notoriously difficult to time, and April’s market volatility is a good example of the challenges investors face during these periods. While we are slightly more cautious given the mixed economic signals, we continue to expect that the economy will achieve a soft landing and that inflation will fall. But, as we stated last month, inflation’s decline will not be linear or swift. It is one thing for a central bank to keep inflation from rising, but causing inflation to fall and wringing out its last vestiges is a much more daunting task. With recent data confirming that inflation can remain sticky despite a slowing economy, we maintain our view that the Fed will be conservative, preferring to hold rates as high and as long as it can to ensure inflation doesn’t reignite.

Uncertainty about inflation has accelerated consolidation in equity markets, but we regard the recent correction as healthy and have not changed our view that earnings will remain supportive through the rest of 2024. When interest rates eventually fall, the riskier segments of the market—such as small-cap stocks, companies with relatively lower quality and more value-oriented stocks—should see renewed interest, broadening the strength within equity indices.

Against this backdrop, we think investors should be patient. Over much of the past year, growth stocks and higher-quality companies with strong earnings, good cash flow and strong balance sheets have excelled, and we expect it will take time for sustained outperformance to pivot to riskier segments of the market. Investors will likely need to see a few rate cuts and begin debating when enduring growth will return, which is a considerably higher burden of proof than believing a soft landing is likely.

We continue to see value in bonds despite the recent volatility. Once the Fed lowers its monetary policy rates, we expect bond yields to fall across the curve. While we and the market maintain some concern about supply putting upward pressure on longer-dated Treasury bonds, the Treasury department recently confirmed that it does not expect to increase bond issuance over the coming quarters. Thus, the rise in longer-dated bond yields could offer a compelling opportunity to lock in significant yields for the length of the bond.

Like in equities, we encourage investors to be patient as they await lower bond yields. While we believe inflation will eventually fall and rates will follow, the path toward the Fed’s 2% long-term average target rate will be bumpy and prone to setbacks. Indeed, the largest risk to financial markets remains inflation persisting above the Fed’s target level, supported by a stronger-than-expected economy. While such a scenario will fuel short-term market volatility, we continue to believe the long-term macroeconomic environment remains broadly supportive for stocks and bonds and thus encourage investors to retain their positions—and their patience.

Drilling down

U.S. stocks correct

The S&P 500 Index fell 4.16% in April from 5,254.35 at the March close to 5,035.69 at the end of April. The total return of the S&P 500 Index (including dividends) for the month was -4.08%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index® also corrected in April, falling 4.41% from 16,379.46 at the end of March to 15,657.82 at the April close.

 

Chart depicting the value of the S&P 500 Index from May 2023 to April 2024

 

Retail sales rise

March retail sales rose 0.8% from February 2024 and 3.67% from March 2023. The rise was led by non-store retailers (primarily online sales) rising 2.7% over the month and 11.3% year-on-year. Miscellaneous store retailers and gasoline stations also boosted sales; both categories increased 2.1% in April. Retails sales in sporting goods, arts and hobby merchandise detracted from the index over the month, falling 1.8%, as did clothing and clothing accessories, which saw a 1.6% decline in April.

Job growth slows

The U.S. economy added 175,000 new jobs in April, according to the Department of Labor’s May 3 report, a reversal from strong jobs growth in recent months. The unemployment rate rose 0.1%, to 3.9%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% on the month and 3.9% from a year ago. All figures were below consensus expectations, thus providing some optimism that employment and wage pressure on inflation could soften.

 

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All sectors but utilities fall

The April correction in U.S. equities was broad-based. The interest rate-sensitive real estate sector was April’s biggest detractor, down 8.5%. The information technology and health care sectors fell 5.43% and 5.08% respectively, followed by the materials, consumer discretionary and financials sectors, which all declined more than 4%. Utilities was the lone sector to rise in April, boosted by more attractive valuations in a generally more defensive sector of the economy.

The chart below shows the past month and year-to-date performance results of the 11 sectors:
 

Chart depicting the April 2024 and year-to-date returns of 11 S&P 500 sectors.


Treasury yields surge

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury surged in April, rising from 4.20% at the end of March to 4.68% at the April close, as sustained inflation weighed on expectations for lower interest rates.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 2.53% in April, bringing its year-to-date loss to -3.28%.
 

Chart depicting U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yields from May 2023 to April 2024


Oil prices fall

After rising over the first quarter of the year, oil prices fell in April, largely due to expectations for weaker economic growth and a reduction in tensions across the Middle East. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing, fell 1.49% over the month, from $83.17 at the end of March to $81.93 at the April close. Despite the correction in oil markets, gasoline prices at the pump rose in April, with the average price per gallon rising from $3.57 at the end of March to $3.79 at the end of April.

 

Chart depicting the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil from May 2023 to April 2024


International equities fall

International equities fell in April but generally performed better than their U.S. counterparts thanks to encouraging economic data from several countries outside the U.S. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed-economy stocks in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, fell 2.93% over the month, from 2,346.84 at the end of March to 2,280.53 at the April close.
 

Chart depicting the value of the MSCI EAFE Index from May 2023 to April 2024


Before making a change in your investment portfolio, you may wish to consult with a financial professional to determine how that may align with your long-term goals and objectives.

 

Media contact: Callie Briese, 612-844-7340; callie.briese@thrivent.com

All information and representations herein are as of 05/07/2024, unless otherwise noted.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Thrivent Asset Management, LLC associates. Actual investment decisions made by Thrivent Asset Management, LLC will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or product. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

This article refers to specific securities which Thrivent Mutual Funds may own. A complete listing of the holdings for each of the Thrivent Mutual Funds is available on thriventfunds.com.

The S&P 500® Index is a market-cap weighted index that represents the average performance of a group of 500 large-capitalization stocks.

NASDAQ – National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations – is an electronic stock exchange with more than 3,300 company listings.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.

Any indexes shown are unmanaged and do not reflect the typical costs of investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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