A look ahead: Q3 2025 outlook
In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500® Index fell nearly 20% from its February highs to early April lows and then rebounded 9.4% in a single day—one of its largest oneday rallies in the last century. And yet, the S&P 500 Index ended the first half of 2025 up 5.5%, near its all-time high.
As we look ahead to the second half of 2025, we see a path for volatility to subside but prefer to expect the unexpected and maintain a cautious stance around our longer-term positive view.
Despite business and consumer uncertainty, tariff policy risks, and weaker global growth, our view is that the economy does not slip into a recession in the remainder of the year or in 2026.
We believe that the U.S. economy has and will continue to adapt to the challenges it faces and that we are in a secular bull market, fueled by innovation, new technologies, productivity and investment. We also continue to believe that bonds offer compelling diversification benefits from equity exposure over the long term, and that current yields can offer attractive income.