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You can purchase mutual funds right on our site with an online account.

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  • Set up an account starting with as little as $50 per month.1
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  • Purchase funds without transaction fees or sales charges.

MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFS

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For guidance when investing, ask a financial professional about investing in Thrivent mutual funds & ETFs.

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MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFS

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If you already have a brokerage account, our mutual funds & ETFs can be purchased through online brokerage platforms by searching for Thrivent Mutual Funds and ETFs.

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Here are some other options that may help you.

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This ETF is different from traditional ETFs. Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. For example:

 - You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

 - The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

 - These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

 - The ETF will publish on its website each day a “Proxy Portfolio” designed to help trading in shares of the ETF. While the Proxy Portfolio includes some of the ETF’s holdings, it is not the ETF’s actual portfolio.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF secret, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of the ETF, see the Principal Risks section of the prospectus.

1 New accounts with a minimum investment amount of $50 are offered through the Thrivent Mutual Funds "automatic purchase plan." Otherwise, the minimum initial investment requirement is $2,000 for non-retirement accounts and $1,000 for IRA or tax-deferred accounts, minimum subsequent investment requirement is $50 for all account types. Account minimums for other options vary.

Thrivent ETFs may be purchased through your financial professional or brokerage platforms.

Contact your financial professional or brokerage firm to understand minimum investment amounts when purchasing a Thrivent ETF.

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NOVEMBER 2024 MARKET UPDATE

Stocks and bonds take a breath

11/07/2024

Financial professional presents market performance data on a screen
WRITTEN BY:
Chief Investment Strategist
WRITTEN BY:
Steve Lowe, CFA,Chief Investment Strategist

Thrivent Asset Management contributors to this report: John Groton, Jr., CFA, director of administration and materials & energy research; Matthew Finn, CFA, head of equity mutual funds; and Yale Nelson, CFA, CFP, investment product manager


Key points

Stocks down, bonds up

Government bond yields rose in October, while U.S. stocks fell.

Hold steady with investments

Remain invested with a long-term fundamentally driven view, adjusting portfolio allocations as longer-term economy, political or other risks ebb and flow.


Chart summarizing the performance of select market indexes, 10-year T bonds, and oil.

 

Equity markets surged and interest rates rose in early November in reaction to former President Donald Trump winning the presidential election and Republicans taking control of the Senate and favored to retain control of the House of Representatives. Markets broadly interpreted the results as positive for economic growth but also as inflationary. Key factors driving the risk-on moves included market expectations that previous tax cuts set for expiration would be extended along and possible further cuts. Markets also expect a lighter regulatory approach and broadly more growth positive policies. Interest rates rose before and after the election on expectations that higher economic growth combined with new tariffs on imported goods would increase inflationary pressures. Expectations that budget deficits would increase also pressured interest rates higher due to concerns over increasing debt levels raising risk premiums embedded Treasuries, and that buyers would demand higher yields to buy the increasing supply of Treasury bonds to fund deficits.

After the election, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its target interest rate by 0.25% as expected.  The Fed has now reduced the targeted range for the federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Progress in lowering inflation combined with concerns over higher unemployment prompted to the Fed to lower the Fed Funds rate to ease financial conditions. Markets expect the Fed to continue to lower its target rate, but at a much slower pace than previously expected due to stronger than expected growth and a slower and a possibly bumpier path downward for inflation. We expect the Fed to continue to reduce its target rate to a less restrictive level but at a measured pace dependent on incoming economic and inflation data. The Fed also is likely to cut rates less deeply than markets previously expected, stopping at a higher terminal rate.

U.S. stocks fell and government bond yields rose in October as markets factored in stronger-than-expected economic data, uneven inflation and political uncertainty. While the S&P 500® Index was relatively stable for much of the month, and declined only 0.99% over the period, U.S. Treasury volatility surged as benchmark 10-year yields rose nearly 0.5%.

Economic data released over the month was broadly supportive of the view that the economy and consumer remain resilient. Third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated at 2.8% quarter-on-quarter. Retail sales were strong, but weaker durable goods orders and signs of slowing activity revealed in the Fed’s Beige Book report on conditions across the country were reminders that the risks of slower growth remain. Third quarter earnings were notably strong in the banking sector, but more mixed in the technology sector. Employment data was mixed and a bit muddled, with 254,000 new jobs created in September, surprising markets that anticipated 100,000 new jobs. That said, October’s employment report revealed a plunge to just 12,000 new jobs, but markets largely discounted that report due to the Boeing strike and particularly impactful hurricanes, both of which pushed that total lower.

Inflation data also was generally supportive of the longer-term trend downward, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% in September relative to August, and 2.4% relative to September of last year. While the market was expecting a somewhat smaller (+2.3%) year-on-year increase, the 2.4% figure was the slowest annual increase since 2021. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index saw a decline in its year-on-year rise from 2.3% in August to 2.1% in September. Core PCE, which the Fed targets, was a bit higher at 2.7%, above the Fed’s long-term average annual inflation rate target of 2%.   

The combination of resilient economic growth and expectations that deficit spending would continue—if not rise regardless of who won the election—drove up inflation expectations. Markets continued to expect the Fed to reduce its target interest rate further this year but reduced the number of expected cuts through 2025. At the same time, yields on the benchmark 10-year note surged 47 basis points in October to end the month at 4.28%. While concerns about economic growth and the risk of accelerating inflation slowing the pace of interest rate cuts partly explains the move, uncertainty about post-election fiscal policy also was a factor, which pushed up risk premiums for Treasury rates. The so-called term premium shot up due to concern about possible inflationary policies such as tariffs and a wave of Treasury bond issuance to fund deficits. 

Outlook: We have been and remain of the view that investors are better served by not trying to time the market but instead remain invested with a long-term, fundamentally driven view, adjusting portfolio allocations as longer-term economic, political or other risks ebb and flow. While economic data is often volatile as economies turn—and some of the data suggest the economy is still slowing—the balance continues to indicate growth is stabilizing if not improving.

Lower interest rates, however quickly or slowly they occur, amid already healthy consumption, earnings growth and a stabilizing job market would only help the economy recover. For example, lower interest rates can directly—and quickly—help consumers by lowering the interest payable on borrowing, including credit cards, auto loans and home mortgages. Additionally, lower interest rates could have a significant impact on the more cyclical sectors of the economy such as real estate, industrials and materials.

Over the long term, we generally favor a strategic bias to being overweight equities relative to bonds as we believe investors are rewarded for the additional performance returns equities typically generate relative to fixed-income investments, albeit at a greater level of risk. But in the current environment, we continue to favor a modest overweight to equities. Despite our optimism that the U.S. economy will rebound in the quarters ahead, we think caution is warranted (particularly given current political and geopolitical risks) as we await clearer signs that the economy has sustainably turned the corner. Also, equity valuations appear extended. While valuation is a poor predictor of short-term returns, rich levels can make the market more susceptible to drawdowns given a fundamental trigger, such as softer earnings.

In bond markets, we believe current yields are compelling for long term buy-and-hold strategies for investors seeking income. Additionally, the steady income of bonds and potential for capital appreciation if the economy should weaken more than we expect make them an attractive holding in a diversified portfolio. However, concerns about fiscal policy are likely to remain. As the risk of larger fiscal deficits increases with the length of the loan an investor provides the government (the length of the bond they purchase), upward pressure could remain on longer-dated yields. While we are positioned moderately overweight interest-rate risk (duration), this is focused on shorter-term maturities, which are most impacted by Fed rate cuts.

Drilling down

U.S. stocks wobble

The S&P 500 Index saw a modest correction in October, from 5,762.48 at the September close to 5,705.45 at the end of October, ending the month down 0.99%. The total return of the S&P 500 Index (including dividends) for the month was -0.91%, lowering its year-to-date return to 20.97%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index® also slipped modestly in October, down 0.52% from 18,189.17 at the end of September to 18,095.15 at the October close. Year to date, the index is up 20.54%.

Chart depicting the value of the S&P 500 Index from November 2023 to October 2024

 

Retail sales rise

September retail sales rose 0.4% from August and 1.7% from September 2023, according to the October 17 report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The monthly rise was higher than consensus expectations, helping to bolster expectations that consumer strength remains robust. Relative to August sales, the rise was led by miscellaneous retailers, up 4.0% over the month, followed by clothing stores, which were up 1.5%. Relative to September 2023, the rise was also led by miscellaneous retailors, up 7.9%, followed by non-store retailors (primarily online sales), which rose 7.1%.

Reported job growth was weak

September’s employment data, released in early October, was unexpectedly strong, reporting 254,000 new jobs created. But October’s employment report showed a mere 12,000 new jobs, well below consensus expectations closer to 100,000. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that a 44,000 drop in jobs in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry was largely due to a strike at Boeing, America’s largest aerospace manufacturer. Additionally, hurricanes impacting the southeast likely weighed on job creation over the month, but estimates vary on how impactful these climatic events can be.

The national employment rate was unchanged in October, at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% over the month, slightly higher than expectations.

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Sector weakness was broad based

Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 Index fell in October, led by health care (-4.62%), materials (-3.49%) and real estate (-3.28%), largely due to concerns about the outlook for the economy and the path of interest rates. Financials were notably strong, supported by generally better-than-expected earnings from large banking and investments firms, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs.

The chart below shows the past month and year-to-date performance results of the 11 sectors:

Chart depicting the October 2024 and year-to-date returns of 11 S&P 500 sectors.


Treasury yields climb

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged in October, rising from 3.81% at the end of September to 4.28% at the October close. Yields initially lurched higher after the strong September employment data but uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election and concerns about fiscal policy fueling inflation weighed on the market, driving yields higher over the month.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 2.48% in October, lowering its year-to-date return to 1.86%.

Chart depicting U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yields from November 2023 to October 2024


Oil prices rose

Oil prices initially rose on renewed concerns about tensions in the Middle East only to fall back as tensions once again subsided and the focus returned to concern about falling demand, particularly from China. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing, rose 1.60% over the month, from $68.17 at the end of September to $69.26 at the October close. Gasoline prices at the pump fell modestly in October, down 1.30%, with the average price per gallon falling from $3.31 at the end of September to $3.27 at the end of October.

Chart depicting the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil from November 2022 to October 2024.


International equities slide

The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed-economy stocks in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, fell 5.50% over the month, from 2,468.66 at the end of September to 2,332.94 at the October close. The index’s year-to-date gains dropped to 4.33%. Japanese stocks continued to rally from their August lows, but weakness in European equities, which fell 3.2% over the period, drove the MSCI EAFE Index lower. Amidst signs of economic weakness across the eurozone, particularly in manufacturing, the German government revised its 2024 GDP forecast down to -0.2%. If the forecast proves correct, it would be the second consecutive year of economic contraction.

Chart depicting the value of the MSCI EAFE Index from November 2023 to October 2024


Before making a change in your investment portfolio, you may wish to consult with a financial professional to determine how that may align with your long-term goals and objectives.

 

Media contact: Callie Briese, 612-844-7340; callie.briese@thrivent.com

All information and representations herein are as of 11/07/2024, unless otherwise noted.

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Thrivent Asset Management, LLC associates. Actual investment decisions made by Thrivent Asset Management, LLC will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or product. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

This article refers to specific securities which Thrivent Mutual Funds may own. A complete listing of the holdings for each of the Thrivent Mutual Funds is available on thriventfunds.com.

The S&P 500® Index is a market-cap weighted index that represents the average performance of a group of 500 large-capitalization stocks.

NASDAQ – National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations – is an electronic stock exchange with more than 3,300 company listings.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.

The Consumer Price Index measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers for a basket of goods and services.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, also known as consumer spending, is a measure of the spending on goods and services by people of the U.S.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, also known as consumer spending, is a measure of the spending on goods and services, excluding food and energy prices, by people of the U.S.

The MSCI EAFE Index is an unmanaged index designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.

Any indexes shown are unmanaged and do not reflect the typical costs of investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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